Link to the on-line version: http://www.economist.com/node/21564582
Who will be Italy's next prime minister?
As Silvio Berlusconi seems to be standing aside, the spotlight is on Mario Monti and the candidates of the Left
TWO questions have dominated
Italian politics since early summer and hung like long, dark shadows over the
markets’ assessment of a country that has done much to extricate itself from
the euro crisis, but is still far from safe.
The first question is: “Will
he, or won’t he?”. And so is the second.
One concerns Silvio
Berlusconi. In June the former prime minister and founder of the conservative
People of Freedom (PdL) movement hinted heavily that he would return as his
party’s candidate in the general election next spring. Since Mr Berlusconi’s
years in government coincided with an almost total absence of economic growth
and structural reform, investors were horrified. So were many Italians who had
not enjoyed their government becoming something of a laughing stock abroad, thanks
to Mr Berlusconi’s antics.
On October 9th Mr Berlusconi
all but said he had thought better of the idea. Interviewed on one of his three
television channels, the media billionaire declared himself “ready to stand
aside”.
The wily tactician left some
wriggle room: his renunciation was to facilitate a grand alliance of the right;
if it does not happen, he could make another U-turn. Some commentators and
rival politicians suspected a ruse.
But there are good reasons for
Mr Berlusconi to have reconsidered. Four months ago, he felt his undoubted
charisma could revive the fortunes of the PdL, which has seen its poll ratings
decline ever since he handed the candidate’s mantle to Angelino Alfano, a
former minister. More recently, however, they have continued to fall, as the
PdL has been immersed in a flood of corruption and other scandals involving its
regional and local leaders. These reflect badly on Mr Berlusconi as they show
what sort of men and women acquired positions of influence under his long
leadership.
Antonio Piazza, a regional PdL
leader, is accused of slashing the tyres of a disabled driver who had the
effrontery to use a parking bay, reserved for the disabled, in which the PdL
dignitary liked to leave his Jaguar. Another PdL apparatchik was arrested on
October 10th, accused of buying votes from the Calabrian mafia—the most
worrying evidence yet of its penetration of northern Italian politics.
According to a poll commissioned by RAI, Italy’s state broadcaster, Mr
Berlusconi would lose to Mr Alfano if a primary election were held among
right-wing voters.
Much of Mr Berlusconi’s
success in politics has been down to his ability to depict himself as a
political outsider: someone far removed in speech and habits from the finagling
party hacks whom most voters regard as venal and self-interested.
Ironically, the arrival in
office last November of a technocratic government of authentic outsiders headed
by Mario Monti has been lethal to Mr Berlusconi’s image. Compared with the
prime minister, an economics professor, Mr Berlusconi looks every inch the
professional Roman power-broker. And the very disenchantment with Italy’s
political class that helped launch Mr Berlusconi into a new career 19 years ago
is now working to sustain Mr Monti’s popularity.
RAI’s poll found Mr Monti was
by far Italians’ first choice for prime minister, ahead of Mr Berlusconi and
Pier Luigi Bersani, the leader of the biggest left-wing movement, the
Democratic Party (PD). That is remarkable considering the pain the prime
minister has heaped on the electorate since taking office. This week brought
another €11.6 billion ($15 billion) of budgetary adjustments, including further
cuts to Italy’s already hard-pressed health services and a one percentage point
increase in VAT albeit offset by reductions in the two lowest rates of income
tax.
Will he or won’t
he?
That is the second question
hanging over Italy. Mr Monti has repeatedly said no to suggestions that he run
for executive office next spring. On September 27th he finessed his reply,
saying he hoped the election would produce a clear result in favour of one
side. But, if not, “I will be there”.
A descent from Olympus, or
rather, the seats in parliament reserved for life senators like Mr Monti, would
be an ideal solution for a man who does not exactly relish campaigning (though
he has a nice line in dry humour, his rhetoric style is more suited to the
lecture hall than hustings). But will his intervention be required?
As the PdL implodes, the odds
shorten on a left-wing victory. A primary election next month will decide if
the PD is led to the polls by Mr Bersani, an ex-Communist, or Matteo Renzi, the
young, centrist mayor of Florence. Mr Renzi admires Mr Monti, and might want
him in a future government, which would almost certainly need the votes of
parties to the left of the PD. That would be a problem for the prime minister,
a declared anti-Keynesian.
Hence Mr Berlusconi’s
suggestion in the television interview that Mr Monti should lead a reunited
centre-right embracing the PdL, the conservative Christian Democrat Union of
the Centre (UDC), and even the party founded by his former lieutenant,
Gianfranco Fini, after he defected two years ago.
There are snags. The sober
professor is not a natural fit with the party of a man on trial on juvenile
prostitution charges in connection with a young Moroccan runaway and her
alleged participation in notorious Bunga Bunga parties at Mr Berlusconi’s home.
And Mr Monti is committed to free markets whereas few in the PdL have done more
than pay them lip-service.
Given the circles to be
squared, Mr Monti might be aiming instead for the presidency, also up for grabs
in 2013. Someone who has worked closely with him, argues, however, he is too
“hands-on” for a post that offers more influence than control.
A member of Mr Monti’s
government admitted that, barring a hung parliament, it was impossible for the
moment to see how Mr Monti could be shoehorned into politics after next spring.
Even so, he added, “It is just as hard to believe he will not be around.”
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